Dangote’s (and the Nigerian political establishment) behavior is actually not that different from that of their forefathers. The whites came and traded guns with West Africans as early as 1600s…. Two hundred years, there was absolutely no significant technology transfer, and those same guns — that African kings and princes had been trading for over a century — were used to subdue them. Even the Dane guns that were produced locally were made from salvaged parts of other imported guns. The superiority of European firepower stared them in the face for over two hundred years, and instead of rapidly adapting to it, they decided to use it to pursue their own narrow goals. As they say, many such cases.
I must concede to this man's extraordinary fecundity in churning out thought-provoking material, on a regular basis.
It is so good that I am re-reading it for the fourth time.
The problem with the educated class is that they are caught up in the business of survival and paying scant attention to the extraordinarily extreme wealth transfer happening under their noses.
I was in Ibadan for the entirety of last week and I was profoundly depressed by the level of human capital flight.
This piece captures a painful truth: Nigeria’s cement story proves that capacity without capability is a dead end.
Government policies created billionaires, not builders, because they failed to demand innovation, skills transfer, and true knowledge ownership.
Good policies only work when driven by the right people…selfless champions like Tan, who can turn protectionism into progress, prioritise capability over capacity, and value process knowledge over profit margins.
Until then, Nigeria will keep producing commodities instead of competencies, and billionaires instead of builders.
A sobering read. I must commend the author on his depth of research and fluency. This piece is "unputdownable" and should be shared widely. I have come across the same gremlins in other industries while working in Nigeria but nobody wants to listen.
When I reflect on many Nigerian billionaires, those deeply invested in wealth accumulation yet seemingly detached from societal transformation, I’m reminded of how the slave trade thrived, with wealth and comfort breeding indifference. It’s not a question of race or culture, but rather the corrosive effect of security and luxury: once an individual and his family are well-fed and shielded from hardship, empathy for the larger society often fades.
This was a somber piece, but I learned a lot and enjoyed every bit of it. One particular part I enjoyed was the reference to South Korea. For the longest time, I've been looking for examples of countries that had similar challenges to Nigeria but have since overcome them. For example: Singapore and how it solved its cultural issues (it was so bad people would defecate and urinate on buses in defiance of government policies); El Salvador and how it curbed insecurity; and now, South Korea, with its model for ensuring knowledge transfer.
Mangal, hmm. Now that's a name that hasn't been featured in an FF article in a *literal* generation.
To the topic at hand, I think that the cause is limited ambition and a surfeit of damaging 'solidarity'. Copilot-fu tells me that our big three pulled in $4bn in FY2023 versus the global industry of $492bn.
Grain of salt and all, but I expect the underlying idea that the domestic market accounts for less than 1% of the global market is true. But our titans have no ambitions to seize global market share. At best, they hope to be the 'X for Africa' and mostly tropical Africa. I don't see any of them with the cojones to go mano a mano with the North or South Africans.
So, respectfully, of course, I say: bleep Nigeria (and Africa)! If you aren't thinking about global market share, then you can never push your field forward. The Chinese, Koreans and Indians intuitively understand this because Asians don't have 'solidarity'. That pushes them towards mastery because China isn't going to give you the fellow Asian against 'the West' discount, and vice versa.
A local champion is a synonym for loser on the stage that really matters (shoutout to our grounded Eagles and Falcons). 'Your margin is my opportunity' is the mindset that breeds innovation.
I told myself, ‘I must read everything this guy writes’. The title was interesting, and I started reading ‘Tan, China, Cement ‘ and going slightly going over my head at some point, but I hung in there. I’m glad I stayed till the end. Such an insightful piece- sad but enjoyable.
Thanks for staying till the end :) The China bit was quite long but I wanted to humanise Tan so he doesnt remain an abstract figure in the minds of Nigerians
The fact that we don't even have that speaks volumes.
I've always wondered why long-serving teachers and doctors aren't immediately handed CFRs and a parade on retirement. Our leaders treat us like slaves. Worse is that we implicitly accept their logic.
Take NYSC. Invented to solve skilled labour issues in poor regions. Instead of thinking deeply about how to make those regions more attractive (I dunno, start with higher pay?), they rely on the flow of conscripted, underpaid and unskilled labour. What can that truly solve?
The core elite interest is consumption and whatever form of production they embark on is one focused on consuming, and not necessarily producing anything beyond their personal interests.
Nigeria's trajectory is a sad proof of this, as expertly articulated here.
And I must thank you for stirring these conversations.
What a dagger to the jugular. My unpopular opinion about this is that colonialism introduced us to this socio-economic behavior largely enabled by capitalism. A sort of capitalism that rewards profits over any social incentive whatsoever. A naked form that feeds on extractive & capricious rent-seeking. Mind you, precolonial or broadly put Africa before any European contact was hardly like this. Economy wasn't organized on private capital and ownership of production. There was a communal approach to the way the economy was organized. Society functioned efficiently without relying on the whims and caprices of a few. Interactions with environment bred some level of technological sophistication that served collective purposes.
However, the slave trade plus colonialism introduced a more cynical dimension to economic organization and by extension, socio-economic behavior. Individuality, greed, profit-making, and ultimately rent-seeking are byproducts of the sordid face of capitalism. We need a self-retrospect and a cultural purge that will revert this extractive form of socio-economic behavior. It is the only way to true economic freedom and domination.
Second comment here, as there is quite a bit to unpack with your article.
With the passage of time, we are starting to appreciate that Obasanjo's government did help create a class of oligarchs whose grip on Nigeria has tightened with every passing year since 2007.
Also one thing which The People's Republic of China has done profoundly, exceptionally well is to delve deep into history, with a view to learning its harsh lessons; it is clear that they have been exceedingly intentional and it shows.
And it is almost fair that your article is something of a continuum of the review of Otedola's book, Buhari's obituary and dare I say, President Olusegun Obasanjo's obituary too.
This is a far reaching article which has been at the back of my mind, since I read for the very first time, yesterday.
If I do ever get my podcast off the ground, you are definitely coming on it.
Thank you, Feyi. I’m glad I deliberately didn’t rush through this at the office, otherwise, I wouldn’t have fully grasped the underlying lesson. Reading it almost brought tears to my eyes. This seminal work, much like your earlier piece on Medium around 2012 on the same subject, is both sad and mind-boggling. I would suggest attaching a link to that earlier article at the end of this piece for context.
A man who chooses to swallow a coconut whole, must first either understand the elastic limits of his sphincter or learn a painful lesson in biology. Alhaji et al in my opinion simply have a cold eyed understanding of the limitations of their sphincter (Nigeria).
In an ideal world, they would indeed invest in human capacity building to ensure technology transfer. But then in Nigeria will there really be a sufficient ROI to justify that? In my understanding, the inherent risks in capacity building in Nigeria means anyone doing it is doing it principally for almost purely altruistic purposes or simply because they have no choice. Take for example the Oil and Gas sector. A very stringent local content policy in the industry meant that investors needed to involve local professionals in engineering design and deployment. This led to the growth of a relatively robust local engineering services industry spearheaded by companies such as NETCO, the Engineering arm of the NNPC. However, these companies commonly experience a very high turnover of staff as their training and experience in the industry made them relatively valuable, with he companies becoming fertile hiring grounds for the MNCs and other international organizations all of whom can offer more competitive pay packages. This is not inherently bad but it does represent lost investment for whoever invested in training and capacity building of the individuals in question. As such, I think that for as long as there is neither a stated government policy forcing this or a clear and obvious path to consistent profit making in investing in technology transfer, there really is no particular incentive for these oligarchs to bother doing so. The only entity that can really do this will probably be the government in some shape or form.
Will NETCO and other Nigerian Oil Companies lose their prized talent if they can offer similar levels of lifestyle to foreign companies? It's great that we are seeing it from Alhaji's perspective, but his perspective is one that primarily serves to enrich him.
I urge you to read the linked Medium article highlighting Alhaji's profit margins. It's those margins that are funding the lack of government policy to change the situation.
I have read it actually. The thing is I am not trying to hold brief for Alhaji or anything. I am simply stating what I believe are the conditions leading to the current state of things. I am quite sure that in most places, without some sort of policy interventions, things may pan out the same as they have in Nigeria. That is why governments are important and necessary to prevent such. As can be seen littered through history, no one changes what already works so well for them irrespective of who they are without being forced to. It is only the presence of a disruptor that will lead to change.
On the issue of renumeration, the existential realities just do not favor the possibility of these local companies being able to compete with the international organizations who have a breath of operations and by extension a war chest to attract the best they can find. Small players in such situations always become easy targets for poaching. It takes some combination of fervent patriotism and/or a mill consistently churning out talent to mitigate it. The Nigerian companies in question see a dent in profitability due to having to continue feeding this mill making such ventures a relatively unattractive proposition. And unfortunately, patriotism that requires such financial sacrifices are not exactly something that can be widely found.
I read the Medium article linked, and it highlighted the pittance Alhaji pays in taxes. Together with this, I struggle to see how this situation will change. Most Nigerians only call his name when his trucks kill, or when they're listing Nigeria's wealthiest men.
Even more frustrating is that, as far as we can tell, this exact process of profit without proficiency is being replicated with his "world's largest refinery". He will probably be raking in ridiculous profit margins because once again, he won't make the technological investments that similar companies in other countries are making. People wonder why he doesn't hire many more Nigerians, and this is why.
Now, in my estimation, Nigeria's political extortionists aren't greedy enough. Hear me out, if the backdoor deals certain people are making to entrench their monopolies required them to pay double what they would have paid in taxes and levies, they will be the ones fighting for good governance. But the politicians are so cheap, despite being greedy.
Of course, he's not the only one enabling the system, but he's emblematic of it. When he's ready to write his book, we will read it.
Thank you for gracing us with this. Please, for your next article, share how we can tackle these issues because I'm typically left feeling as though we cannot effect any meaningful change. I know the answer is related to good governance, but I'm really doubtful as to how we can achieve that.
Dangote’s (and the Nigerian political establishment) behavior is actually not that different from that of their forefathers. The whites came and traded guns with West Africans as early as 1600s…. Two hundred years, there was absolutely no significant technology transfer, and those same guns — that African kings and princes had been trading for over a century — were used to subdue them. Even the Dane guns that were produced locally were made from salvaged parts of other imported guns. The superiority of European firepower stared them in the face for over two hundred years, and instead of rapidly adapting to it, they decided to use it to pursue their own narrow goals. As they say, many such cases.
That’s deep 😩
Absolutely spot on!
Replace they/them with we/us.
I must concede to this man's extraordinary fecundity in churning out thought-provoking material, on a regular basis.
It is so good that I am re-reading it for the fourth time.
The problem with the educated class is that they are caught up in the business of survival and paying scant attention to the extraordinarily extreme wealth transfer happening under their noses.
I was in Ibadan for the entirety of last week and I was profoundly depressed by the level of human capital flight.
This piece captures a painful truth: Nigeria’s cement story proves that capacity without capability is a dead end.
Government policies created billionaires, not builders, because they failed to demand innovation, skills transfer, and true knowledge ownership.
Good policies only work when driven by the right people…selfless champions like Tan, who can turn protectionism into progress, prioritise capability over capacity, and value process knowledge over profit margins.
Until then, Nigeria will keep producing commodities instead of competencies, and billionaires instead of builders.
PS: another thought provoking banger 💥 by Feyi.
A sobering read. I must commend the author on his depth of research and fluency. This piece is "unputdownable" and should be shared widely. I have come across the same gremlins in other industries while working in Nigeria but nobody wants to listen.
Thank you sir, far too kind
When I reflect on many Nigerian billionaires, those deeply invested in wealth accumulation yet seemingly detached from societal transformation, I’m reminded of how the slave trade thrived, with wealth and comfort breeding indifference. It’s not a question of race or culture, but rather the corrosive effect of security and luxury: once an individual and his family are well-fed and shielded from hardship, empathy for the larger society often fades.
This was a somber piece, but I learned a lot and enjoyed every bit of it. One particular part I enjoyed was the reference to South Korea. For the longest time, I've been looking for examples of countries that had similar challenges to Nigeria but have since overcome them. For example: Singapore and how it solved its cultural issues (it was so bad people would defecate and urinate on buses in defiance of government policies); El Salvador and how it curbed insecurity; and now, South Korea, with its model for ensuring knowledge transfer.
Thank you for sharing such an insightful piece.
Thank you for reading especially as it was a very long piece 😄
It was worth every minute! ✋😌🤚
Mangal, hmm. Now that's a name that hasn't been featured in an FF article in a *literal* generation.
To the topic at hand, I think that the cause is limited ambition and a surfeit of damaging 'solidarity'. Copilot-fu tells me that our big three pulled in $4bn in FY2023 versus the global industry of $492bn.
Grain of salt and all, but I expect the underlying idea that the domestic market accounts for less than 1% of the global market is true. But our titans have no ambitions to seize global market share. At best, they hope to be the 'X for Africa' and mostly tropical Africa. I don't see any of them with the cojones to go mano a mano with the North or South Africans.
So, respectfully, of course, I say: bleep Nigeria (and Africa)! If you aren't thinking about global market share, then you can never push your field forward. The Chinese, Koreans and Indians intuitively understand this because Asians don't have 'solidarity'. That pushes them towards mastery because China isn't going to give you the fellow Asian against 'the West' discount, and vice versa.
A local champion is a synonym for loser on the stage that really matters (shoutout to our grounded Eagles and Falcons). 'Your margin is my opportunity' is the mindset that breeds innovation.
I told myself, ‘I must read everything this guy writes’. The title was interesting, and I started reading ‘Tan, China, Cement ‘ and going slightly going over my head at some point, but I hung in there. I’m glad I stayed till the end. Such an insightful piece- sad but enjoyable.
Thank you!
Thanks for staying till the end :) The China bit was quite long but I wanted to humanise Tan so he doesnt remain an abstract figure in the minds of Nigerians
Thank you for this. Apart from Dora Ankuyili, I struggle to think of any Nigerian leader worthy of the Model Worker award.
The fact that we don't even have that speaks volumes.
I've always wondered why long-serving teachers and doctors aren't immediately handed CFRs and a parade on retirement. Our leaders treat us like slaves. Worse is that we implicitly accept their logic.
Take NYSC. Invented to solve skilled labour issues in poor regions. Instead of thinking deeply about how to make those regions more attractive (I dunno, start with higher pay?), they rely on the flow of conscripted, underpaid and unskilled labour. What can that truly solve?
Oya, japa dey hot.
Option A: Make Nigeria more attractive.
Option B: Bans.
Option C: Do Nothing.
We all know A won't happen.
Bravo!
The core elite interest is consumption and whatever form of production they embark on is one focused on consuming, and not necessarily producing anything beyond their personal interests.
Nigeria's trajectory is a sad proof of this, as expertly articulated here.
And I must thank you for stirring these conversations.
Thanks for reading!
We have celebrated the same people that have enabled the nation to be in a constant state of stagnation.
Thank you so much for this enlightening piece. It's value packed.
You have also added more words to my vocabulary. Thank you😂
What a dagger to the jugular. My unpopular opinion about this is that colonialism introduced us to this socio-economic behavior largely enabled by capitalism. A sort of capitalism that rewards profits over any social incentive whatsoever. A naked form that feeds on extractive & capricious rent-seeking. Mind you, precolonial or broadly put Africa before any European contact was hardly like this. Economy wasn't organized on private capital and ownership of production. There was a communal approach to the way the economy was organized. Society functioned efficiently without relying on the whims and caprices of a few. Interactions with environment bred some level of technological sophistication that served collective purposes.
However, the slave trade plus colonialism introduced a more cynical dimension to economic organization and by extension, socio-economic behavior. Individuality, greed, profit-making, and ultimately rent-seeking are byproducts of the sordid face of capitalism. We need a self-retrospect and a cultural purge that will revert this extractive form of socio-economic behavior. It is the only way to true economic freedom and domination.
Second comment here, as there is quite a bit to unpack with your article.
With the passage of time, we are starting to appreciate that Obasanjo's government did help create a class of oligarchs whose grip on Nigeria has tightened with every passing year since 2007.
Also one thing which The People's Republic of China has done profoundly, exceptionally well is to delve deep into history, with a view to learning its harsh lessons; it is clear that they have been exceedingly intentional and it shows.
And it is almost fair that your article is something of a continuum of the review of Otedola's book, Buhari's obituary and dare I say, President Olusegun Obasanjo's obituary too.
This is a far reaching article which has been at the back of my mind, since I read for the very first time, yesterday.
If I do ever get my podcast off the ground, you are definitely coming on it.
Thank you, Feyi. I’m glad I deliberately didn’t rush through this at the office, otherwise, I wouldn’t have fully grasped the underlying lesson. Reading it almost brought tears to my eyes. This seminal work, much like your earlier piece on Medium around 2012 on the same subject, is both sad and mind-boggling. I would suggest attaching a link to that earlier article at the end of this piece for context.
A man who chooses to swallow a coconut whole, must first either understand the elastic limits of his sphincter or learn a painful lesson in biology. Alhaji et al in my opinion simply have a cold eyed understanding of the limitations of their sphincter (Nigeria).
In an ideal world, they would indeed invest in human capacity building to ensure technology transfer. But then in Nigeria will there really be a sufficient ROI to justify that? In my understanding, the inherent risks in capacity building in Nigeria means anyone doing it is doing it principally for almost purely altruistic purposes or simply because they have no choice. Take for example the Oil and Gas sector. A very stringent local content policy in the industry meant that investors needed to involve local professionals in engineering design and deployment. This led to the growth of a relatively robust local engineering services industry spearheaded by companies such as NETCO, the Engineering arm of the NNPC. However, these companies commonly experience a very high turnover of staff as their training and experience in the industry made them relatively valuable, with he companies becoming fertile hiring grounds for the MNCs and other international organizations all of whom can offer more competitive pay packages. This is not inherently bad but it does represent lost investment for whoever invested in training and capacity building of the individuals in question. As such, I think that for as long as there is neither a stated government policy forcing this or a clear and obvious path to consistent profit making in investing in technology transfer, there really is no particular incentive for these oligarchs to bother doing so. The only entity that can really do this will probably be the government in some shape or form.
Will NETCO and other Nigerian Oil Companies lose their prized talent if they can offer similar levels of lifestyle to foreign companies? It's great that we are seeing it from Alhaji's perspective, but his perspective is one that primarily serves to enrich him.
I urge you to read the linked Medium article highlighting Alhaji's profit margins. It's those margins that are funding the lack of government policy to change the situation.
I have read it actually. The thing is I am not trying to hold brief for Alhaji or anything. I am simply stating what I believe are the conditions leading to the current state of things. I am quite sure that in most places, without some sort of policy interventions, things may pan out the same as they have in Nigeria. That is why governments are important and necessary to prevent such. As can be seen littered through history, no one changes what already works so well for them irrespective of who they are without being forced to. It is only the presence of a disruptor that will lead to change.
On the issue of renumeration, the existential realities just do not favor the possibility of these local companies being able to compete with the international organizations who have a breath of operations and by extension a war chest to attract the best they can find. Small players in such situations always become easy targets for poaching. It takes some combination of fervent patriotism and/or a mill consistently churning out talent to mitigate it. The Nigerian companies in question see a dent in profitability due to having to continue feeding this mill making such ventures a relatively unattractive proposition. And unfortunately, patriotism that requires such financial sacrifices are not exactly something that can be widely found.
I read the Medium article linked, and it highlighted the pittance Alhaji pays in taxes. Together with this, I struggle to see how this situation will change. Most Nigerians only call his name when his trucks kill, or when they're listing Nigeria's wealthiest men.
Even more frustrating is that, as far as we can tell, this exact process of profit without proficiency is being replicated with his "world's largest refinery". He will probably be raking in ridiculous profit margins because once again, he won't make the technological investments that similar companies in other countries are making. People wonder why he doesn't hire many more Nigerians, and this is why.
Now, in my estimation, Nigeria's political extortionists aren't greedy enough. Hear me out, if the backdoor deals certain people are making to entrench their monopolies required them to pay double what they would have paid in taxes and levies, they will be the ones fighting for good governance. But the politicians are so cheap, despite being greedy.
Of course, he's not the only one enabling the system, but he's emblematic of it. When he's ready to write his book, we will read it.
Thank you for gracing us with this. Please, for your next article, share how we can tackle these issues because I'm typically left feeling as though we cannot effect any meaningful change. I know the answer is related to good governance, but I'm really doubtful as to how we can achieve that.