People Moving
I have seen a lot of pictures and videos of excited passengers eager to use the newly launched Lagos Metro throughout the last week. Several people sent me messages wondering why it took so long for the Lagos government to do this - especially seeing the enthusiastic demand and efficiency gains from such infrastructure. Feyi wrote about the transformative effect of a mass transit system, using the examples of Thailand and Vietnam.
But even by the standards of the current inefficient form of transportation - Lagos has been a terrible failure. Basic infrastructure like roads and drainages are in such a parlous state that going out on a rainy day in Lagos might likely result in death.
During multiple episodes of the endless debate about petrol subsidy - it was common to hear arguments that it only benefits urban households who are not desperately poor. This might be accurate, but if you factor in the high cost of moving around Lagos and the total disconnectedness of the city, it is no surprise that urban households might want petrol subsidy as the only public good they can enjoy in a collapsed and chaotic city.
Most people spend hours daily that should be spent working, resting, or with their families in the infamous Lagos traffic jams. Getting to work or going home for millions of people involves convoluted travel routes and multiple forms of transportation - all of which add to the cost of living and the cost of doing business.
And it’s not just transport infrastructure. Many neighbourhoods and even public expressways can be buried in heaps of garbage for weeks without any pickup (despite getting and paying monthly bills) - making the city look like Gotham in the Joker film. Most neighbourhoods are also without public spaces and sidewalks with no form of physical planning and maintenance. The state's presence is plainly absent in most of Lagos, except to extort lossmaking and subsistent businesses.
Housing is also a serious challenge. Rents are high because demand for housing far outstrips the supply. Construction is certainly not meeting the demand mainly because of misallocation that comes from the state government's constitutionally-backed rapaciously corrupt control of the land market via the notorious Land Use Act. The result is homelessness and the proliferation of slums all over the city - and a disorderly expansion of the suburbs as many households strive for minimal ownership to escape the yoke of rising rents.
The biggest consequence of the failure of Lagos is that the majority of the people are stuck, and cannot move up the economic ladder. Historically, the existence of cities has been correlated with personal and collective prosperity. This relationship has been weakened significantly with the growth of ''poor cities'' across the developing world - and Lagos epitomizes that. When I travelled to Shenzhen a few years ago, one of my hosts (a bank executive) proudly recounted how he moved to the city as a young taxi driver twenty years prior. Most of his colleagues and other people I met had similar stories. They came, they schooled, worked, became skilled, and moved up. They did it without the use of violence, politics, grace, or a favoured meeting with a ''destiny-helper''. Their stories cast my mind to so many people I knew in Lagos growing up - many of them remain in the same jobs, microbusinesses, and the same houses for decades. They are not lazy or stupid - It is just that the opportunities and rewards for honest and creative work in this city are still not big enough for the number of people trying.
So, as we celebrate the new metro line, it is good to remember that Lagos is a city that could be ten times bigger than its current size in productivity and economic value. However, it is governed by elites whose political incentives rarely intersect with the public good.
Scathing, but true.