Thank you for the painstaking research you put into writing this.
Some of the more egregious errors you highlighted in the reports are quite worrisome given the value and significance of this IPO. I hope the concerned institutions will take a look and respond.
I appreciate your continued scrutiny of Dangote. If nothing else, it offers a minority view that helps us, as a society, contemplate the possibility of more optimal outcomes.
Understandably, your approach clashes violently with the tendency we have as Nigerians to think of what could have been mostly from a negative angle. That tendency is conveyed in the phrase "at least".
For instance, criticism of a project costing multiples of what it would cost in a comparable clime is often met with, "at least...." Our defence for criticism of a 50% score is typically, "you better thank God, it was not 22%."
That word reveals that, in the end, our expectations are typically set just a little above the least possible outcome. Unfortunately, "at all, at all, na him bad" is the compact that makes it hard to question anything that meets that low threshold.
Thank you for this enlightening piece. It was worth every single minute I spent reading it. While the IPO is significant, I can't believe it is being branded as 'The IPO for the people'.
Took a lot of my time but a worthwhile read. I'm disappointed by the apparent lack of due diligence by the IB issuing houses. Perhaps it's deliberate kowtowing to see the IPO to fruition. Nonetheless, it's disappointing.
It hurts me to say that this is perhaps the longest article I've read this year. But I don't regret it; I deeply appreciate the enormous time and effort it must have taken to put this together to educate people. Maybe Nigerians will always be blind and maybe we'll always be anti-evidence and pro-sentiment but someone has to keep documenting.
P.S. This is not the kind of piece the issuing houses can defend, it's the kind of piece they hope will quietly disappear.
I commend you on the level of research. I'm a numbers guy and I like to see receipts. This analysis provides them in spades.
I had no intention of touching this IPO with a barge pole and all of the above simply confirms my suspicions and bolsters my decision.
There are wider issues highlighted here...
Governance of listed companies and the role of investment banks. The three banks leading this issue should be embarrassed. The number of schoolboy errors is beyond astounding.
yeah you ate with this. something i think is worth talking about (and is my conspiracy) is that most of the ‘research notes’ by these investment companies seem to be very ai generated which explains all the very very simple and stupid errors you kept finding. which is a whole other kind of problem worth talking about
As always enlightening. Sadly, every Nigerian billionaire is just a copy of Dangote or an aspiring copy of Dangote in all respects. And the Nigerian state is very happy with this crop of billionaires. And Nigerians worship billionaires so much.
We have no shortage of people who advise, critique, and analyse, many of them excellent. What’s rare are those who actually build. Aliko Dangote does.
Building forces exposure to reality/embarrassment. It demands capital, coordination, and consequence. It means dealing with regulators, supply chains, power shortages, execution risk, and time horizons that don’t reward clever commentary.
It’s slower, messier, and far less glamorous than analysis.But it’s also where value is created.
Entire industries don’t emerge from opinions, they emerge from people willing to commit, absorb risk, and stay the course long enough to make something real at scale.
If I had written an article praising Aliko as the 8th wonder of the world, no one will complain that it is too much analysis or part of the "shortage of builders". So I am not fooled by clever sounding nonsense like this.
I recognise it for what it is - part of the totalising and suffocating culture of discussion in Nigeria where any kind of criticism is just taken as unacceptable. Deviating from any kind of established consensus is taken as almost sacrilegous and can cause you personal damage. One person I used to respect (all respect now completely withdrawn) called me a few weeks ago and threatened me over Aliko. I actually felt sorry for him in the end but made a point to never speak to him again.
Thankfully, as I dont live in Nigeria and have no plans to, I don't have to participate in it. I will continue my Dangote criticism as I see fit. There is more than enough praise for him out there so the universe will remain balanced. I am not a builder and I have no plans to. I am a writer and I will continue to write.
I find it interesting that after such a layered analysis of our greatest industrialist's contribution to Nigerian impoverishment, this is what you came up with. Did you not hear? Cement, which he basically racks up for "free", is more expensive than ever, is priced at international benchmarks and is less accessible to consumers. Why would his homegrown refinery be different?
Why is the truth so terrible to admit that you must hold on to these pseudo-ideologies of builders and their perceived haters? Little wonder your country has so much support for a government dedicated to sucking the life out of its people.
Thank you for the painstaking research you put into writing this.
Some of the more egregious errors you highlighted in the reports are quite worrisome given the value and significance of this IPO. I hope the concerned institutions will take a look and respond.
I appreciate your continued scrutiny of Dangote. If nothing else, it offers a minority view that helps us, as a society, contemplate the possibility of more optimal outcomes.
Understandably, your approach clashes violently with the tendency we have as Nigerians to think of what could have been mostly from a negative angle. That tendency is conveyed in the phrase "at least".
For instance, criticism of a project costing multiples of what it would cost in a comparable clime is often met with, "at least...." Our defence for criticism of a 50% score is typically, "you better thank God, it was not 22%."
That word reveals that, in the end, our expectations are typically set just a little above the least possible outcome. Unfortunately, "at all, at all, na him bad" is the compact that makes it hard to question anything that meets that low threshold.
Thank you for this! Thank you again, because you see yíyẹ closing chapter/paragraph, has been something weighing down on me recently
Started my Saturday with this and it was worth every single minute spent reading it.
Thank you for doing this.
Thank you for this enlightening piece. It was worth every single minute I spent reading it. While the IPO is significant, I can't believe it is being branded as 'The IPO for the people'.
"Tim cooked and everyone ate" - Nominative determinism pro max
"Dangote still dey find money" - Burna Boy
A lengthy but enlightening piece. I enjoyed every bit of it.
Took a lot of my time but a worthwhile read. I'm disappointed by the apparent lack of due diligence by the IB issuing houses. Perhaps it's deliberate kowtowing to see the IPO to fruition. Nonetheless, it's disappointing.
It hurts me to say that this is perhaps the longest article I've read this year. But I don't regret it; I deeply appreciate the enormous time and effort it must have taken to put this together to educate people. Maybe Nigerians will always be blind and maybe we'll always be anti-evidence and pro-sentiment but someone has to keep documenting.
P.S. This is not the kind of piece the issuing houses can defend, it's the kind of piece they hope will quietly disappear.
Thank you very much! It’s very long so I appreciate you sticking with it to the end
Thank You FF!
I commend you on the level of research. I'm a numbers guy and I like to see receipts. This analysis provides them in spades.
I had no intention of touching this IPO with a barge pole and all of the above simply confirms my suspicions and bolsters my decision.
There are wider issues highlighted here...
Governance of listed companies and the role of investment banks. The three banks leading this issue should be embarrassed. The number of schoolboy errors is beyond astounding.
Thank you, boss. Really enjoyed this
…Another arduous research Mr. Feyi . Thanks for this piece.
yeah you ate with this. something i think is worth talking about (and is my conspiracy) is that most of the ‘research notes’ by these investment companies seem to be very ai generated which explains all the very very simple and stupid errors you kept finding. which is a whole other kind of problem worth talking about
As always enlightening. Sadly, every Nigerian billionaire is just a copy of Dangote or an aspiring copy of Dangote in all respects. And the Nigerian state is very happy with this crop of billionaires. And Nigerians worship billionaires so much.
Feyi is like what Pablo Torroe is to Kwahi and the Clippers. Thanks for this piece.
We have no shortage of people who advise, critique, and analyse, many of them excellent. What’s rare are those who actually build. Aliko Dangote does.
Building forces exposure to reality/embarrassment. It demands capital, coordination, and consequence. It means dealing with regulators, supply chains, power shortages, execution risk, and time horizons that don’t reward clever commentary.
It’s slower, messier, and far less glamorous than analysis.But it’s also where value is created.
Entire industries don’t emerge from opinions, they emerge from people willing to commit, absorb risk, and stay the course long enough to make something real at scale.
- Dr Ola Brown
If I had written an article praising Aliko as the 8th wonder of the world, no one will complain that it is too much analysis or part of the "shortage of builders". So I am not fooled by clever sounding nonsense like this.
I recognise it for what it is - part of the totalising and suffocating culture of discussion in Nigeria where any kind of criticism is just taken as unacceptable. Deviating from any kind of established consensus is taken as almost sacrilegous and can cause you personal damage. One person I used to respect (all respect now completely withdrawn) called me a few weeks ago and threatened me over Aliko. I actually felt sorry for him in the end but made a point to never speak to him again.
Thankfully, as I dont live in Nigeria and have no plans to, I don't have to participate in it. I will continue my Dangote criticism as I see fit. There is more than enough praise for him out there so the universe will remain balanced. I am not a builder and I have no plans to. I am a writer and I will continue to write.
I find it interesting that after such a layered analysis of our greatest industrialist's contribution to Nigerian impoverishment, this is what you came up with. Did you not hear? Cement, which he basically racks up for "free", is more expensive than ever, is priced at international benchmarks and is less accessible to consumers. Why would his homegrown refinery be different?
Why is the truth so terrible to admit that you must hold on to these pseudo-ideologies of builders and their perceived haters? Little wonder your country has so much support for a government dedicated to sucking the life out of its people.