On the Bretton Goods Substack, I read a nice review of a new-ish book called In Service of the Republic by two Indian policy heavyweights — Ajay Shah and Vijay Kelkar.
Many of India’s problems read the same as Nigeria’s but that’s as far as the similarities go, mostly. The gap in problem solving between both countries is pretty substantial and India has something else that Nigeria hardly does — pockets of world class excellence in various sectors of the economy that are practically non-existent in Nigeria. (I was also drawn to this because I’m in an ‘India state of mind’ at the moment due to be engrossed by a large fiction book set in the country. More on that soon)
Still, I thought the review was apposite in that it proposes a system for making public policy in developing countries. It lists the problems of policy making from bad data to optimal taxation levels and then outlines 3 ways to tackle them. First you collect the data:
The first part of the system is to have a systematised process of data collection that provides policymakers with the data that they need. In their view of the world, Indian policymakers would have data comparable to that found in developed countries. India would have monthly detailed inflation reports, detailed GDP figures that are released rapidly, data specific to some industries or sectors and so on.
Then you encourage research into the data, preferably by a different set of people to the ones who collected them i.e. making them available to academia:
In their ideal world, there would be research on empirical topics in India. Questions like “how much does banning cars on certain days help with pollution?” would be easier to answer, and so academics and civil servants writing technical reports for the government would have an easier time finding evidence to recommend better policies.
And then finally, you create policy proposals from the research:
After you gather all the data and evidence, the next part is to create policy proposals. This isn’t always a straight line from having data to creating policy — you need a model of how the world works as well! Take this example from the book:
In the Indian experience, we set about creating a new private industry of electricity generation, without having solved the problems of distribution or of fuel. Very large amounts of capital are blocked in new-age generation plants, which are stranded with the lack of fuel and/or the lack of financially sound buyers for their electricity.
With the benefit of hindsight, we see a simple failure of sequencing in the reforms of this sector. Problems in distribution and the energy sector should have been addressed before or at least in conjunction with generation reforms.
It all sounds easy enough and you wonder who might have a problem with something like this? I think the whole post is worth reading.
But the problem that immediately becomes obvious is that such a ‘nice’ system requires too many different people to work together. And that is a hugely underrated problem in a country like Nigeria. The chances of failure of any public policy is directly proportional to the number of distinct groups of people required for it to be successful.