The reason why Thailand (and Malaysia) faltered also primarily political: remains too semi-feudal. Likewise, the seemingly astute Malaysian revolving sultanate constitution proved to be a huge handicap for real tech transformation in your sense: helped to preserve a political/econ elite which is too rentier, like their Thai brethren
Great read along series! While Feyi rightly stress the need of technological learning and upgrading to sustain manufacturing development, he doesn't explain why basic manufacturing for export often never starts in Africa (except for Mauritius, Lesotho, Ethiopia,...). These operations are elatively simple but rarely happen. Why Senegal don't even export t-shirts and jeans to France or Spain? It suggests that before the technological learning problem there is an external competitiveness issue.
My guess is that labor is relatively too expensive in Africa and this is due to the fact food prices are relatively high vs other parts of the world such as SE Asia. If food prices are high, you must pay your labor force accordingly and export manufacturing won't be competitive at such a wage level. This is why Asian success cases usually accompanied or preceded by agricultural reforms which insured an increase in food supply and low food prices which in turn allowed manufacturers to pay low wages an remain competitive.
Technological learning and upgrading is essential but to even put your 1st foot on the manufacturing for export ladder you must be cheap and Africa is not.
I generally agree. If we take Korea as example, industrialisation does start with raw export competitiveness, while technological learning comes with industrial upgrading to higher value goods. I've also written about the food problem in Africa, which has a long history and remains underrated. My sense is that things have changed in the last three decades due globalisation and modularity of production. The promising path to industrial growth now lie in policies and strategies that finds where to fit in the many complex value chains of products - and I think there should be more emphasis on tasks rather than products. I also think manufacturing discipline should be applied to agriculture - or what is commonly agribusiness.
Would you say for South Korea,(and to some extent Japan) their geopolitical position also played a role. The US gave South Korea billions from 1946-76, the competition with North Korea as well is an added incentive to industrialise, most African states do not have geopolitical rivals in the same manner. Of course you still have to utilise what you have wisely but billions in American aid and American military support is not insignificant..
Without a doubt, for South Korea, the threat and confrontation with North Korea concentrated minds and that is a well known driver of industrialisation. Friendship with the US also had its benefits (Wolf Ladejinksy did great work there. But a bigger problem for Africa might just be a lack of anyone nearby to learn from. The Sahel is quite a mess and Nigeria is perhaps the most sensible country in the region now, which tells its own story.
As a Nigerian I am horrified by the thought of Nigeria being the "sensible" power ! But yeah there's a consistent geopolitical failure on the part of African leaders, when china began it's investments we should've included local training as part of whatever deals we signed. When the USSR was building the Ajaokuta steel mill we should've included local training, it wasn't like it was unavailable, my father literally studied in the USSR. I understand the outside pressures are immense and we have many structural weaknesses but there's seems to be an unwillingness to plan long term or build cohesive supply chains. The missing ingredient like you said is political will. Policy needs to be cohesive, the whole will not work without the sum of it's parts being on point. Excellent work. You definitely got my sub
The reason why Thailand (and Malaysia) faltered also primarily political: remains too semi-feudal. Likewise, the seemingly astute Malaysian revolving sultanate constitution proved to be a huge handicap for real tech transformation in your sense: helped to preserve a political/econ elite which is too rentier, like their Thai brethren
Great read along series! While Feyi rightly stress the need of technological learning and upgrading to sustain manufacturing development, he doesn't explain why basic manufacturing for export often never starts in Africa (except for Mauritius, Lesotho, Ethiopia,...). These operations are elatively simple but rarely happen. Why Senegal don't even export t-shirts and jeans to France or Spain? It suggests that before the technological learning problem there is an external competitiveness issue.
My guess is that labor is relatively too expensive in Africa and this is due to the fact food prices are relatively high vs other parts of the world such as SE Asia. If food prices are high, you must pay your labor force accordingly and export manufacturing won't be competitive at such a wage level. This is why Asian success cases usually accompanied or preceded by agricultural reforms which insured an increase in food supply and low food prices which in turn allowed manufacturers to pay low wages an remain competitive.
Technological learning and upgrading is essential but to even put your 1st foot on the manufacturing for export ladder you must be cheap and Africa is not.
I generally agree. If we take Korea as example, industrialisation does start with raw export competitiveness, while technological learning comes with industrial upgrading to higher value goods. I've also written about the food problem in Africa, which has a long history and remains underrated. My sense is that things have changed in the last three decades due globalisation and modularity of production. The promising path to industrial growth now lie in policies and strategies that finds where to fit in the many complex value chains of products - and I think there should be more emphasis on tasks rather than products. I also think manufacturing discipline should be applied to agriculture - or what is commonly agribusiness.
Feyi's point is also that just buying machines and making T-shirts isn't going to make you competitive and soon enough tha business dies.
Would you say for South Korea,(and to some extent Japan) their geopolitical position also played a role. The US gave South Korea billions from 1946-76, the competition with North Korea as well is an added incentive to industrialise, most African states do not have geopolitical rivals in the same manner. Of course you still have to utilise what you have wisely but billions in American aid and American military support is not insignificant..
Without a doubt, for South Korea, the threat and confrontation with North Korea concentrated minds and that is a well known driver of industrialisation. Friendship with the US also had its benefits (Wolf Ladejinksy did great work there. But a bigger problem for Africa might just be a lack of anyone nearby to learn from. The Sahel is quite a mess and Nigeria is perhaps the most sensible country in the region now, which tells its own story.
As a Nigerian I am horrified by the thought of Nigeria being the "sensible" power ! But yeah there's a consistent geopolitical failure on the part of African leaders, when china began it's investments we should've included local training as part of whatever deals we signed. When the USSR was building the Ajaokuta steel mill we should've included local training, it wasn't like it was unavailable, my father literally studied in the USSR. I understand the outside pressures are immense and we have many structural weaknesses but there's seems to be an unwillingness to plan long term or build cohesive supply chains. The missing ingredient like you said is political will. Policy needs to be cohesive, the whole will not work without the sum of it's parts being on point. Excellent work. You definitely got my sub