For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. - H.L Mencken
The title of this post is one of my favourite slogans lately, and I believe it is worth writing about. Too many problems in our societies persist because leaders, elites, and other high-status people responsible for solving these problems or framing them have simple theories of the world. The clearest implication of this is that policies and execution are designed based on these simple theories, and failure remains persistent. One other implication is that citizens, voters, and other stakeholders become misinformed, subject to elite influence, and then grant legitimacy to visions based on these simple theories. The circle of failure self-perpetuates.
What I am describing may seem arcane, but a few examples will render it all too familiar. In the run-up to the Nigerian elections in 2023, the current president, Bola Tinubu, became a memetic sensation on social media. Many of his speeches, gaffes, and facial expressions became fodder for many comedic scenarios and descriptions. However, in many of those speeches, he articulated his vision of the world through many policy propositions. He believes that "yahoo yahoo boys", an infamous moniker for young men involved in online fraud, can be converted to digital experts. One of his main political opponents in 2023 also agrees with this sentiment - and evidence suggests it is now policy. The standard assumption here is that since online fraud and software engineering both involve spending hours in front of a computer, the skills must be connected and transferable. My favourite example of this attitude is when Nigeria underperforms at regional or global sporting events. We are treated to an assortment of analysts who lament Nigeria's underperformance, despite an abundance of natural talents. Apparently, riverine communities in the country are teeming with Olympic swimmers, if only the government were serious. The most famous example here comes from Tariff Man himself, Donald Trump, who confidently proclaimed that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win".
The Allure of Simplicity
It is worth noting that, like H.L Mencken, I do not think all simple theories of the world are wrong. The world is a complex place, and simple theories do not reckon with this complexity. Hence, systems and solutions designed on simple theories almost always fail. Simple theories are cognitively attractive. They reduce effort, offer causal arrows that point in one direction, and usually provide a villain or a silver bullet. They fit existing biases and are easy to communicate. Political language amplifies this tendency. Firing security chiefs or ordering them to end insecurity sends a powerful signal that the president is serious. It also primes the public to expect forceful action, yet after a few months, we are back wondering why the solution never arrived.
The trap is that social problems are not single knots to be sliced. They are the surface patterns of many threads pulling against each other. Oversimplification distorts reality and sets policy up to fail. Simple theories are misguided, not because they do not sometimes contain truths, but because they are guided by linear causal thinking. Young people who know how to use a computer can be upskilled to become software engineers, but software engineering involves coding, math, and reasoning skills; not just "computer literacy". Becoming a professional and competitive swimmer requires more than just being born near a river; in fact, the two are almost entirely unrelated. Tariffs are always corrupt, costly, and useless. But they can sometimes complement many other measures of trade policy with the goal of domestic industrialisation. Thinking that tariffs are all you need to spur local industrial development is not only wrong and morally dubious, but it also shows an utter lack of understanding of global trade. When we squeeze a many–sided problem into a single metric or cause, we misdiagnose and then mistreat.
Complex Systems
The "law of unintended consequences" is the folk label we use when complex systems answer our blunt interventions with surprises. What matters are the interactions: who influences whom, which signals get amplified or damped, and how patterns arise from local rules. Flocks of birds, ant colonies, the brain’s neural networks, markets, cities, and entire societies are all familiar examples. Take the parts apart, and you will find only pieces. Watch them together and you find order that no single part dictates.
There are several features of complex systems, but I will highlight a few of them:
Nonlinearity and feedback - Inputs and outputs are not proportional. A small tweak can cascade into a large change, and a bold push can fizzle if the system adapts against it. Positive feedback amplifies a move, negative feedback stabilises it. This is why actual policy outcomes rarely match the predicted outcomes.
Emergence - New properties appear at the system level that do not exist at the component level. No individual financial trader decides to create a market bubble, yet together traders can produce one. No single policymaker or policy decision can switch off a recession because a recession is not a switch, it is a pattern emerging from many decisions.
Open boundaries and interdependence - Complex systems are open to flows of information, energy, and resources. Boundaries are fuzzy. An economy bleeds into society, culture, and the use of natural resources. A shock in one domain often ripples across others.
These properties are not excuses for fatalism or inaction. Rather, they are reasons to plan with humility and to design policies that probe, learn, and adjust. Acknowledging complexity should not paralyse decision-making. It should spur decision-makers to improve and adapt the choices they make.
Working with Complexity
Think in systems - Start with maps, and not slogans. Identify the actors, incentives, constraints, and feedbacks that will generate the expected outcome. Tax policy decisions affect investment and consumption decisions of businesses and households. Starting with singular objective of growing government revenue may not be the best. In tackling youth unemployment, skill training programs without how businesses can keep creating jobs may not yield a long-term positive. In health, a vaccine rollout without building trust with local communities can stall progress. Insecurity involves more than just police action, it involves state presence in rural communities, securing property rights, and legitimate local conflict resolution institutions. Realising that good elections are mostly about good logistics and procedural efficiency, and not just personnel integrity may help electoral reform policies. Systems mapping prevents tunnel vision.
Work across boundaries - Complex problems spill across departments and professions. Interdisciplinary teams and cross–government coordination are necessities. Diversity of expertise and experience reduces blind spots and improves resilience. Most policies fail because of lack of coordination and alignment across various domains of action.
Decentralise intelligently - Central rules can set standards and goals, while local actors experiment with ways to meet them. Allowing variation and then selecting and scaling the most effective models harnesses self–organisation rather than fighting it.
Build resilience - Expect shocks. Design redundancy and flexibility into critical systems. Distributed energy grids with many small nodes absorb failures better than single points of generation. Economies that rely on one export or one trading partner can be excessively vulnerable to trade and price shocks. Variety is not good for capability; it is also safety feature.
Progress is not Victory - Some problems can only be managed to tolerable levels, and cannot be solved. Crime and insecurity will never vanish, but they can be vastly reduced. We can say the same for poverty, and many other social problems. Inability to eradicate these problems should not waiver commitment to confronting them.
Simple theories of the world are effective. They provide catchy soundbites. They can win elections, and even build mass political movements. They also fail miserably at providing useful frameworks for solving social problems. So, to rephrase Mr Mencken's quip, for every complex problem, there is an influential and credentialed person claiming that the solution is simple. They are almost always lying or do not know what they are talking about.
Brilliant piece! ‘Complexity’ can be intimidating; ‘rigour of thought’ can be too demanding, and sadly nobody has time for nuance, so laziness seems to be the easy option. We need real leaders. Thanks for this.